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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."